Characterizing uncertainty in geotechnical design of energy piles based on Bayesian theorem     

Hu  Biao  Gong  Quanmei  Zhang  Yueqiang  Yin  Yihe  Chen  Wenjun 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(9):4191-4206

It is known that a lot of uncertainties are involved in geotechnical design of energy piles. In this paper, a Bayesian updating framework is presented to characterize those uncertainties. The load-transfer model is developed to predict the thermomechanical response of energy piles. Considering the cross-case variability of the uncertainty in the axial strains of pile, the global model bias is firstly calibrated by establishing a comprehensive database consisting of 12 energy pile cases. Furthermore, the uncertainty in input parameters is considered in the Bayesian updating of model bias in a specific case. The variability of the uncertain parameters is effectively reduced after updating. The coefficient of variation of prediction is decreased from 0.34 to 0.13. The present framework can well quantify uncertain factors and improve the accuracy and reliability of the prediction model.

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国道213汶川—松潘段滑坡隐患遥感识别与易发性评价     

黄艳琴  李为乐  许洲  李鹏飞  铁永波 《中国地质调查》2022,9(4):121-133

国道213汶川—松潘段位于强震山区,滑坡灾害频发,每年都会因滑坡灾害导致交通中断,迫切需要查明沿线滑坡隐患的空间分布,并对其易发性进行评价。利用光学遥感和InSAR综合遥感技术对沿线滑坡隐患进行识别,共识别滑坡隐患288处,其中InSAR探测出有形变的滑坡隐患点27处。以识别出的滑坡隐患为评价样本,选取高程、坡度、坡向、地表曲率、工程地质岩组、归一化植被指数(normalizied difference vegetation index,NDVI)、距道路距离、距河流距离、距断层距离等9个影响因素作为评价因子,采用Logistic回归模型评价该沿线滑坡隐患易发性,评价结果可为国道213汶川—松潘段滑坡灾害防治提供参考。  相似文献   

Formation mechanism,experimental method,and property characterization of grain-displacing methane hydrates in marine sediment: A review     

Yong-chao Zhang  Le-le Liu  Gao-wei Hu  Qing-tao Bu  Cheng-feng Li  Zheng-cai Zhang  Jian-ye Sun  Chang-ling Liu 《China Geology》2022,5(2):345-354

Grain-displacing hydrate deposits exist at many marine sites, which constitute an important part of methane hydrate resources worldwide. Attributed to the difficulties in acquiring field data and synthesizing experimental samples, the formation and property characterization of grain-displacing hydrate remains less understood and characterized than the pore-filling hydrate in current literature. This study reviews the formation mechanisms of grain-displacing hydrate from the perspective of geological accumulation and microscale sedimentary property. The experimental methods of synthesizing grain-displacing hydrate in the laboratory and the current knowledge on the property of grain-displacing hydrate sediment are also introduced. Shortcomings in current theories and suggestions for future study are proposed. The work is hoped to provide valuable insights for the research into the hydrate accumulation, geophysics, and hydrate exploitation targeted at the grain-displacing hydrate in the marine sediments.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation of hydrate formation in water-dominated pipeline and its influential factors     

Li Huang  Jia-le Kang  Xiao-dong Shen  Jian-ye Sun  Qing-guo Meng  Qiang Chen  Gao-wei Hu  Chang-ling Liu  Neng-you Wu 《China Geology》2022,5(2):310-321

Blockage in water-dominated flow pipelines due to hydrate reformation has been suggested as a potential safety issue during the hydrate production. In this work, flow velocity-dependent hydrate formation features are investigated in a fluid circulation system with a total length of 39 m. A 9-m section pipe is transparent consisted of two complete rectangular loops. By means of pressurization with gas-saturated water, the system can gradually reach the equilibrium conditions. The result shows that the hydrates are delayed to appear as floccules or thin films covering the methane bubbles. When the circulation velocity is below 750 rpm, hydrate is finally deposited as a “hydrate bed” at upmost of inner wall, narrowing the flow channel of the pipeline. Nevertheless, no plugging is observed during all the experimental runs. The five stages of hydrate deposition are proposed based on the experimental results. It is also revealed that a higher driving pressure is needed at a lower flow rate. The driving force of hydrate formation from gas and water obtained by melting hydrate is higher than that from fresh water with no previous hydrate history. The authors hope that this work will be beneficial for the flow assurance of the following oceanic field hydrate recovery trials.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

Identification of functionally active aerobic methanotrophs and their methane oxidation potential in sediments from the Shenhu Area,South China Sea     

Jing Li  Chang-ling Liu  Neng-you Wu  Xiao-qing Xu  Gao-wei Hu  Yan-long Li  Qing-guo Meng 《China Geology》2022,5(2):285-292

Large amounts of gas hydrate are distributed in the northern slope of the South China Sea, which is a potential threat of methane leakage. Aerobic methane oxidation by methanotrophs, significant methane biotransformation that occurs in sediment surface and water column, can effectively reduce atmospheric emission of hydrate-decomposed methane. To identify active aerobic methanotrophs and their methane oxidation potential in sediments from the Shenhu Area in the South China Sea, multi-day enrichment incubations were conducted in this study. The results show that the methane oxidation rates in the studied sediments were 2.03–2.36 μmol/gdw/d, which were higher than those obtained by sediment incubations from other areas in marine ecosystems. Thus the authors suspect that the methane oxidation potential of methanotrophs was relatively higher in sediments from the Shenhu Area. After the incubations family Methylococcaea (type I methanotrophs) mainly consisted of genus Methylobacter and Methylococcaea_Other were predominant with an increased proportion of 70.3%, whereas Methylocaldum decreased simultaneously in the incubated sediments. Collectively, this study may help to gain a better understanding of the methane biotransformation in the Shenhu Area.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

Developing a novel hybrid model for seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings     

Hu  Qidan  Xiong  Feng  Zhang  Bowen  Su  Peiyang  Lu  Yang 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2022,20(11):5849-5875

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings provides key information for disaster management. However, previous seismic loss prediction models ignored...  相似文献   

Estimation of constant-damage residual displacements in terms of maximum inelastic displacements for SDOF structures     

Liu  Bali  Hu  Jinjun  Xie  Lili 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2022,20(2):1027-1055

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - This paper investigates the constant-damage residual displacement ratios Cr (i.e., the ratio of the residual displacement in terms of the maximum inelastic...  相似文献   

Multi-scale climate variations and mechanisms of the onset and withdrawal of the South China Sea summer monsoon     

Chen  Wen  Hu  Peng  Huangfu  Jingliang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(6):1030-1046

Science China Earth Sciences - The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) heralds the establishment of the large-scale East Asian summer monsoon and the western North Pacific summer...  相似文献   

Under the surface: Pressure-induced planetary-scale waves,volcanic lightning,and gaseous clouds caused by the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano     

David A. Yuen  Melissa A. Scruggs  Frank J. Spera  Yingcai Zheng  Hao Hu  Stephen R. McNutt  Glenn Thompson  Kyle Mandli  Barry R. Keller  Songqiao Shawn Wei  Zhigang Peng  Zili Zhou  Francesco Mulargia  Yuichiro Tanioka 《地震研究进展（英文）》2022,2(3):100134

We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km³ and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.  相似文献   

川东南盆缘常压区页岩裂缝脉体特征及古压力演化          下载免费PDF全文

曾宇  侯宇光  胡东风  何生  刘若冰  董田  杨锐  李欣诚  叶云飞 《地球科学》2022,47(5):1819-1833

为了查明川东南盆缘常压页岩气区五峰组页岩裂缝脉体记录的古温度及古压力特征,揭示常压页岩气区储层压力降低的主要影响因素和页岩气散失机理.以松坎地区五峰组黑色碳质页岩裂缝脉体内的流体包裹体为主要研究对象,通过显微镜光学观察、阴极发光测试、包裹体测温和激光拉曼分析,结合埋藏-生烃-热史模拟,对裂缝脉体中的气-液两相盐水包裹体和高密度甲烷包裹体进行了系统研究.研究表明:松坎地区五峰组裂缝中主要存在着两期脉体充填,M1裂缝脉体形成时间距今约103~86 Ma,脉体较宽、阴极发光颜色为橘红色,其内甲烷包裹体捕获压力为82.6~91.5 MPa,反映燕山中期盆缘地区页岩气藏处在超压状态;M2裂缝脉体生长于M1裂缝脉体两侧,形成时间距今约90~72 Ma,脉体较窄、阴极发光颜色为暗红色,其内甲烷包裹体捕获压力为43.6~47.3 MPa.综合分析认为,川东南盆缘松坎地区五峰组在燕山期经历了由超压至常压的转变.燕山期以来的抬升剥蚀与褶皱变形导致地层内大量页岩气沿着滑脱层发生侧向运移和散失,地层压力快速下降.燕山晚期时,盆内稳定构造区页岩气藏仍处于超压状态,而盆缘地区已降至常压.   相似文献